The first results are in from Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee won the convention in West Virginia. No candidate had a majority in the first round, although Mitt Romney had a comfortable lead, but in the second round most McCain supporters (McCain was in 3rd place) switched to support Huckabee (the delegates were told by the McCain campaign to go and support Huckabee), who ended up winning by a slim majority. Will this change the overall results of Super Tuesday? Not a bit. Huckabee has as much chance of winning as I do. I’d feel pretty bad if I knew that I only won West Virginia only because most McCain supporters were voting against Romney. It looks like the W. Virginia delegates were wasted on the least viable candidate the Republican Party has produced in a long time.
Barack Obama won Georgia with a strong showing of support from African-American voters and young voters. He will receive more than 50% of the vote. Hillary Clinton had the most support from older white women and men. The Republican race is still too close to call. Exit polls show a close race. Huckabee has more support from younger voters than Romney does but Romney has more support from older voters. Romney has more support from people with more education while Huckabee has support from people with less education (less than high school). Both Romney and Huckabee attract many more conservative voters than McCain does. He still hasn’t shown that he can win the core conservative voters in the Republican Party.
The results pour in from the various states and I won’t take the time to cover them all. Mike Huckabee has done surprisingly well. His wins have all been (mostly) in the South though. Even though the South is very important to the Republican Party (and Democratic Party), it does not represent the general demographics and ideologies of the Republican Party.
Mitt Romney did very well in Arizona considering the fact that McCain is from there. Romney received almost half of the votes of Republican Arizonans who consider themselves conservative, to McCain’s third. This is a bit of a slap in the face to McCain. He just didn’t win Arizona by very much (right now it looks like less than a majority). While he has fairly consistently won around the country, he has not won the conservative vote. Many conservatives around the country are disenfranchised with his success. McCain lacks character. Barack Obama has solid character, Mitt Romney has a very solid character, Ron Paul has character, and Mike Huckabee even has decent character but John McCain does not, or at least has shown his many character flaws in this primary race. His whole campaign slogan is a lie – “I’m a Straight-Talker.” During his campaign he showed that he was anything but a “straight-talker.” I used to really like John McCain; after all, I grew up in Arizona. I still respect him for the service he’s rendered the nation but I just don’t feel that I can really trust him anymore. He’s the supreme “flip-flopper” in the campaign because he does it without the mainstream media calling him on it. He’s changed his positions back and forth many times. Romney at least only changed a few of his positions once.
If the general election came down to Obama and McCain, I would have no qualms about voting for Obama if he was not so pro-abortion (he voted against the partial-birth abortion bill; I find it appalling that he could support them). He also has a too-simplistic view of the war in Iraq. In spite of that, Obama has character. Even though he is more liberal than Hillary Clinton, I’d support him any day over Clinton. She has questionable character at best. She’s had too many scandals, too much double-talking and acting to make me feel that I could really support her. A lot of it stems from her time in the White House as First Lady.
McCain has strong support in the northeast (except for Massachusetts). McCain has a lot of support all around the country as well. Huckabee has his support in the South, specifically the Southeast (except Florida). Huckabee has basically no support in the Mid-West, Northeast, or the West. His delegates are essentially worthless. He does not have wide appeal within the Republican Party (outside the South) – Iowa was a fluke. Mitt Romney has very strong support in the Midwest and the West. He’s also done very well in the rest of the states, except in the South, where Huckabee sucks up a lot of his support.
Hillary Clinton has strong support all over the country. She consistently does well in the primaries. However, Barack Obama is having a wonderful night. He will win more states than Clinton (although not necessarily more delegates). He has wide support through the heart of the country and in the mountain west (interestingly, many of the same areas that Mitt Romney has the strongest support; this is not a coincidence. Both Obama and Romney have really strong support in the caucus states).
Right now it looks like Romney will win at least 6 states (with 2 still up in the air – California and Alaska). McCain will win at least 7. Huckabee will win at least 5. My numbers might be off slightly but overall, it is a pretty close night for all three Republicans. The delegate count will be different though. McCain will have the most delegates.
Obama will win at least 11 states to Clinton’s 9.