I decided to redo the site due to administration difficulties of the old site. This site should be more accessible. I am slowly re-posting all the old posts. Thanks for your patience.
By Daniel B. Kay
With so many contests going on tomorrow it has been fun trying to figure out how thing will play out. Some contests are a given while others are wide open. Undoubtable the predicitons for the delegate count are as much a shoot in the dark as anything but here are my predictions for the GOP nonetheless.
Winning Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, & Tennessee.
Winning Alaska, California, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, & West Virginia.
Huckabee: 80 delegates
By Daniel Kay
The media is spinning McCain as the Winner of the Louisiana Caucus. In reality, however, McCain was beaten by a land slide to “Pro-Life” this week. The final results are yet to be confirmed as the rules for being able to vote in the caucus required that you be a registered Republican and this was not confirmed before the voters were allowed to participate. In other words, this is the most meaningless and ridiculous event of the Primary season so far. It really makes you wonder how viable Huckabee is when he could not win an uncontested primary in the Deep South when he has the most constant and forthright anti-abortion record and platform, respectively.
Apparently, all the Republicans in the Caucus voted for “Pro-Life” and only a small fraction (presumable not adamant pro-lifers) of moderate and liberal voters were left to give McCain and Ron Paul the distant two, three positions.
Now—Louisiana, why would you move your primary up just to tell the nation that you are undecided? For goodness sakes, get back in the heap with the rest of the states that are not paying any attention to the race. Again the distant second place finish of McCain is nothing more than what we already know—moderates and independents are voting for McCain. No big news. The question is why aren’t more Core Republicans speaking up? More importantly, why aren’t conservative leaders, like the Louisiana senator who endorsed Romney the day before the vote, speaking out sooner so that endorsement will actually do something?
GOP Political Risk: Part Two
By Daniel Kay
Previously I compared areas of the Risk board to states on the US map being contested in the GOP race. However, the areas on the board are more comparable to the various voting blocs of the GOP. This is easily correct as the wins in each state correspond nicely to wins in particular voting blocs. North America I identified as Iowa but Huckabee’s win there represented a clear win over the Evangelical voting bloc. I compared New Hampshire to Europe which corresponds to McCain’s command over the foreign policy conservatives, independents and moderates of the party. Romney’s win in Michigan was identified as taking control of South America which represents a part of the Economic conservative wing of the party. I characterized Australia as a hide a wait strategy used by Giuliani but it also represents, like Michigan, another part of the economic wing of the party. South Carolina I previously underrepresented as a battle over Greenland but it was actually a battle over the North America/evangelical voting bloc which Thompson successfully assailed from Kamchatka strongly by Thompson while Romney moved in effectively from Peru and McCain defended against Huckabee’s main army in Greenland from moving into Iceland. So South Carolina was a battle over North America and the clear loser was Huckabee. Romney’s wins in Wyoming and Nevada were identified with wins in Africa territories which represent the core republicans of the party. He has not taken all of Africa yet. Thompson remains an annoying contender for this voting bloc. Thompson’s final armies in Africa are stationed in Madagascar waiting to capitulate to Romney the only other spectrum Republican still in the running. Asia represents the bandwagon republicans who will vote for whom ever is the most popular. Currently that is up in the air but has been in the hands of Giuliani for some time though they recently lost control of this region.
Time to review the game board as it lies with the major players:
McCain has solidified his control over Europe/Independent and moderate GOP voters. He conquers Europe divisively when he won New Hampshire but he has fortified and reinforced his control over this sector. He depleted the armies of Huckabee stationed in Greenland but was unable to move in and take any part of the Evangelical voting bloc. McCain also strengthened his armies in Australia ending Giuliani’s domination of the continent. The winner of Florida will need to win the out of control spending part of the economic conservative vote. McCain is on message and in a strong position to win.
Romney expended some of his armies working his way into Huckabee’s control over North America and was able to move into Central America. Romney expanded his control in Africa (i.e., core republicans) by a divisive win in Nevada receiving over 50% of the vote. He was also able to fortify his armies in South America (i.e., the economic conservative wing of the GOP). His control over South America has been put under scrutiny by the media it just depends on Giuliani’s ability to win Australia then expand through Africa to take South America from Romney (unlikely but possible). Romney has also strengthened his armies holdup in Australia and the battle between these three will take place over the next 8 days.
Huckabee is stuck in North America trying to take back lost territory, ~1/3 of the Evangelical vote he lost to each Romney and Thompson, so he can gain control of the continent again. Huckabee is completely isolated in North America and does not have the resources to battle Romney, Giuliani and McCain but his attempts are absolutely futile as he will never win the economic conservative (South America) or the moderate and foreign policy conservative (Europe) votes. He therefore, has only one move: attack Thompson to take as much of the evangelical vote back from him in the hope it is enough to allow him to move into Asia popular enough to compete on Super Tuesday (he must be dreaming).
Ron Paul is currently in the Middle East with a relatively large army but unlikely to do any damage to anyone but perhaps deplete some of McCain’s strength in Europe.
Thompson seems to still have some of the bandwagon support and core GOP support but does not have the means to stay in the game much longer.
***Up date: Thompson dropped out of the race and now it is question of who will fill the voided space on the board.***
Giuliani’s broad support in Asia (the popularity contest vote) has all but disappeared and he is in Australia ready for his final battle.
Game Board View:
By Daniel Kay
Ron Paul has been accused of having no credibility and yet in at least one state he has out performed every GOP frontrunner except Mitt Romney. McCain and Huckabee have been out preformed by Ron Paul in Nevada and tied with him in Wyoming. While Giuliani has been consistently out preformed state-to-state by Paul including Iowa, Michigan, and Nevada and tied with him in Wyoming. Ron Paul supporters use this to give credibility to his candidacy but what it should be doing is bring into question the credibility of those he is beating.
On this level, Romney is the only one with state-to-state (i.e., national) credibility. More importantly, he has received the most GOP votes of any candidate: estimated at around 20,000 more votes than McCain the declared frontrunner. He has also obtained the most delegates: 34 more delegates the the so-called frontrunner. I just hope that the GOP wakes-up to what is happening. If McCain, Giuliani, or Huckabee wins the nomination, the Democrats will be running against the party that has a buffalo or a rhinoceros mascot rather than the party that has the elephant. I hope Huckabee’s camp is wrong when they said that the GOP coalition is already dead but if Romney does not win the nomination I believe this claim will be validated.
Recently, Mitt Romney labeled Huckabee a “one hit wonder.” By all accounts that appears to be how things are shaping up. Gaining no momentum from his Iowa win going into New Hampshire and losing momentum to McCain after a distant third place finish there, Huckabee has little chance of winning another contest. Huckabee’s Evangelical support will not change up or down; it will consistently float around 60% of Evangelicals who make-up 33% of the GOP nationally. To be specific, that is about 20%. Huckabee claims he can branch out to other GOP voters, but his debate performance in South Carolina did not help at doing that. He made no attempt to broaden his support; rather, he continued to focus on preaching to Evangelical voters. Some states that have higher percentages of Evangelicals will increase his chances of a win, as was the case in Iowa. However, this will not be enough to beat Romney, Giuliani, or McCain in the states leading up to Super Tuesday, nor to win that day either. Huckabee will lose Michigan to McCain and/or Romney, he will lose Nevada to Romney and/or Guiliani, he will lose South Carolina to McCain, he will lose Florida to Giuliani and/or McCain and possible Romney as well. As for Super Tuesday, while Huckabee may win a state (like Georgia) here and there, he will lose the day.
With the majority of Evangelicals wasting their support on a candidate that does not appeal to the Republican core, McCain has the best chance to win the nomination—at this point in the game anyway. McCain will be tough to beat in Michigan for Romney, thanks to democrats and independents who make up about 50% of those who will be voting in the GOP primary. Like in 2000 it is probable that they will turn out in support for McCain. If McCain wins Michigan, even an unforeseen loss in South Carolina will do little to stop him gaining enough support to get the nomination. His national momentum has really taken off after NH; and frankly, there are more McCain loyalists than those who subscribe to the Evangelical voting bloc. Huckabee will stick around through the remainder of the race as his support is unlikely to abandon him to the bitter end no matter how bleak his chances are.
It looks like what they say is true: there were three tickets out of Iowa: Huckabee, Romney and McCain got them. There were two tickets out of New Hampshire: McCain and Romney got them. The battle for the nomination is now between McCain and Romney. We will soon find out if Giuliani’s “big state strategy” will defy this heuristic and give him a pass though the early states and put him back into contention—I, like may others, doubt it!
By Daniel Kay
Congratulations goest to McCain for winning 7 delegates from the New Hampshire Primary. Nonetheless, he remains third in the race for delegates. A large percentage of his support came from independents.
The Evangelical Voting Bloc of Iowa has its candidate, the Democrat-leaning Independents of New Hampshire have their candidate, and the Conservative Core Republicans of Wyoming have their candidate; three states, three different “winners.” The Republican Party is a house divided. Thompson needs to drop-out. He has little money, zero wins and low opinion ratings. Ron Paul’s loss to Huckabee and Giuliani in New Hampshire must be eye-opening to his supporters. I wonder how much longer Paul will remain in the race, I wish him well. He is the one Republican candidate that stood against the religious test being imposed on Romney. On integrity Paul is the most disserving of praise and respect.
To date Romney has 30 delegates, Huckabee has 21, McCain has 10, and so on and so forth.
I just hope for Romney’s sake that there are more “Spectrum Republicans” voting in the Republican primaries than democrats posing as independents and Anti-Mormons posing as Christians.
Hillary won the New Hampshire Primary and stole Obama’s thunder. No easy task. I cannot deny that Hillary is a fierce competitor. And how can any man beat someone that is willing to cry for the emotional vote like Hillary did. Only a women could get away with such antics. She will be hard to beat even for Obama now–dare I say it? Her victory is “inevitable.”
Romney won 8 of the 12 delegates in the Wyoming Caucus today. He also leads the GOP field in National Republican Committee (NRC) delegates, obtaining 6 so far. In total Romney gained 12 delegates from his second place finish in Iowa, 8 from his win in Wyoming and 6 NRC delegates giving him 26 total, making him the front-runner in the GOP field. Huckabee, though given first place in Iowa, he is in second for total delegates, totaling 20. He received 17 delegates from Iowa, gained 0 from Wyoming and has gained 3 NRC delegates from his home state of Arkansas. Thompson is in third gaining 3 delegates from his third place finish in Iowa, 3 delegates from his second place finish in Wyoming, and 0 NRC delegates, totaling 6.
Don’t expect this lead to change after New Hampshire. Because New Hampshire “broke” NRC rules and moved the caucus up, there are only 12 delegates up for grabs this year, and like Iowa and Wyoming it in not “winner take all.” Therefore, even if McCain wins next Tuesday he will only take his ~33% (5-6 delegates), Romney will take his ~27% (3-4 delegates) and Huckabee will get his ~12% (1-2). McCain will still be in third of fourth place in the GOP race for delegates, and Romney will still be in first.
On the democrat side, Hillary Clinton leads the race for delegates capturing most “super delegates.” She has 169 total delegates, followed by Obama with 66 and Edwards with 47.
By Daniel Kay
The numbers say it all in the Iowa Caucus: Huckabee took first with 34 percent of the vote; Romney came in second with 26 percent. According to the CNN entrance poll, 60 percent of Republican voters were Evangelical/Born-again, with 46 percent of them voting for Mike Huckabee. To highlight the point, 60% x 46% = 28%, that is, 28 of the 34% of Huckabee’s votes came from Evangelicals/Born-agains. Only 6 of the 34% of his votes came from non-Evangelical/Born-again voters. All the pandering to the Evangelical Theocratic voting bloc and Anti-Mormon antics paid off. The best part for Huckabee is that this voting bloc was free.
Romney is the real winner. Unlike Huckabee, his support in Iowa was not limited to a single voting bloc, even doing well among Evangelicals not tied to the Evangelical Theocracy mind set, as compared to Thompson and McCain. Romney is the only candidate that is competitive in all the early states. Republicans that want a viable candidate will rally around McCain, Thompson, Giuliani or Romney. But as Romney continues to appear in the top tier state-to-state and other candidates begin to drop-out, Republicans will eventually rally around Romney; Huckabee will not be able to expand his support by an appeal to Divine Evangelical Providence.
They say there are three tickets out of Iowa. This year there are no less than five. Depending on whether Ron Paul’s 9% support continues, there may even be a sixth ticket which will allow Paul to drain votes from Huckabee’s competitors. It is time for Duncan Hunter to bow-out but McCain, Thompson, Paul, Giuliani, and Romney are still in the running. One thing is clear, choosing a Republican nominee is going to be a long drawn-out battle. Iowa has done little to narrow the field this election year.
By Daniel Kay
A common statement among Huckabee supporters is “I feel like I can connect with him.” Such is the privilege of most Male, Middle Class, White and Evangelical candidates. Perhaps it is Romney’s money that prevents some voters from ‘connecting.’ Realistically, however it has much more to do with another M word, Mormon. Indeed, how much more money does it cost a Mormon to compete in the Republican Iowa Caucus than a Baptist? Just ask Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Neither will acknowledge that if Romney were any type of Christian than a Mormon Christian, he would have the nomination sealed by now. I know how much more personal blood, sweet and tears are required as a Mormon to achieve the same as a Protestant Christian who has the benefit of entitlement from fellow Protestants or someone that lacks the persecution inextricable from being a Mormon. Money aside, the fact that Romney, a Mormon, is competing in Iowa is remarkable. A recent study out by Vanderbilt University showed that there is greater discrimination against Mormons than blacks or women in America. No other candidate in this race has had to over come so much.
Romney’s Iowa rival Mike Huckabee, has obtained the Evangelical grass roots support not by self merit but by Evangelical entitlement. Evangelical entitlement comes with gratuitous loyalty that allows him to get away with more antics. First, Huckabee recently fooled the media into disseminating his Anti-Romney attack ad. This slick move saved Huckabee from having to spend the money to air it, while maintaining the good-guy image. Second, Huckabee left his secure stalwart Evangelical gold claim to cross the writers strike line for an appearance on Jay Leno the day before the Caucus. This would have been caucus suicide for Romney, but for Huckabee, Iowa support assured, it was a chance to expand his national support. Third, Huckabee has allowed his web site post column to be a cesspool for Anti-Mormon vehemence. Imagine the outcry if Hillary allowed her web site to be a forum for racism to help her bet Obama?
I have come down hard on Huckabee, but in the spirit of this blog I will leave a few nice, positive thoughts about him and his supporters. First, Huckabee is a stalwart social conservative. If he gets the nomination I will most likely support him in the general election because I believe that social issues outweigh all others. Second, though Evangelicals despise me and my faith and continue to push us away, most Mormons, including myself, will stand next to them politically for the common good and as fellow Christians.
Romney is an idealist to believe that his faith is a non-issue for most Americans but that is what makes him great. He has a vision of America that is brighter than most of us realize. America has come a long way in overcoming discrimination. This is perhaps one more chance for America to move beyond bigotry.